The analysis of the computer market
Now St.-Petersburg on rates of growth of economy is one of most dynamically developing locales of Russia. The size of foreign investments in 2006 has reached 5,3 bln. dollars of the USA, that almost in 4 times exceeds previous year level. Industrial production increase has exceeded 6 %.
Incomes of the budget of St.-Petersburg in 2006 have exceeded 215 billion roubles, in 2007 — 234,4 billion roubles, and in 2008 — 293,8 billion roubles, that on a quarter more than in 2007. In 2009 and 2010 budget incomes will increase by 39,5 billion roubles and on 45,1 billion roubles accordingly and will make 333,3 billion roubles and 378,4 billion roubles. It is planned, that rate of growth of a total internal product in St.-Petersburg will increase by 8,4 % in 2008, on 9,2 % — in 2009 and on 8,6 % — in 2010. It above, than growth of a total product of the Russian Federation predicted for the similar period.
High metrics of growth should be mirrored in the computer market on which development performance of arrogant schedules of the government substantially depends. For their performance solution on the accelerated development of the high technology productions is accepted. Their basis are IT processing techniques and computers.
The basis of high-powered systems is made by workstations and servers. Their main users are the large organisations. Products of this sector of the computer market are constructed on units of the limited nomenclature, major of which are processors. And though a considerable share of existing systems incorporate processors of IBM and SUN units AMD and Intel are dominating. Thanks to successes of company AMD in perfection of the architecture of 32-bit processors the share of systems with its units in prior years tended to fast increase. However after release in 2006 of processors of Intels constructed on multinuclear microarchitecture of Intel Core, the situation in the market has varied. As a result of system with multinuclear processors of Intel supersede not only production of competitors of Intel, but also the previous models with Netburst architecture processors, exceeding already two thirds in sector of workstations and servers of initial level. To the accelerated implantation of the newest solutions promotes the initiatives of Intel routed on support of manufacturers. Among them not a little known domestic, together with the foreign companies. As an example it is possible to result IBM and SUN, releasing systems not only on the units, but also on processors and chip sets of the competitor.
Not less safely for Intel company the situation and for the systems constructed on 64-bit processors of EPIC architecture (Intel Itanium and Itanium 2) is added . Contrary to forecasts of some uekspertov about neperspektivnosti such solutions the large companies have become interested in them. Large providers of services of a mobile communication who during short time have bought some tens the high-powered systems constructed on the basis of multinuclear models of processors of Intel Itanium 2 concern their number, for example .
In the market of desktop systems the products constructed on the basis of several processor architectures compete. Rather small share — less than one percent is made by company Apple computers. About the same share occupy models with processors VIA. Overwhelming quantity of sold desktop computers are products with processors AMD and Intel. Thus, despite the attractive prices offered by company AMD on the products, in the market systems with Intel processors, components more than three quarters (by some estimations — more than 80 %) all sold computers dominate . It is promoted by the flexible policy of the company of Intel, providing various preferentsii to the partners in which number not only collectors of systems and the trading organisations, but it is frequent also end users.
Consumers the large state firms buying recently a significant amount of desktop computers are priority. Government structures, law-enforcement departments concern their number, etc . So, for example, in 2006 in the area of national education it has been bought more than two hundreds computer classes, in each of which about one and a half ten computers, that many times over more than, for example, several years ago. In 2007 rates of a computerisation — still above.
Considering, that dependability of modern electronic products is very high, and existing instructions for the state structures do not encourage their regular writing off and changeover, in the state firms the significant amount of systems with processors from i286 to Intel of Pentium 4 is already stored . So, for example, in educational institutions the majority of existing resources successfully uses in educational process. On a metric of number of the pupils falling to one computer, St.-Petersburg already overtakes many European countries. To an effective utilisation of existing resources promotes not only flexible system of educational programs, but also quite often redundant power of gained systems — redundant today even in case of usage of processors of Intels Celeron oriented to systems of initial level and making a basis of overwhelming majority of new computers gained now. As resources of mapping of the information for computers of system of national education already about five years are installed exclusively liquid-crystalline (ZHK) screen monitors. Practically all used computer classes are hooked up to broad-band Internet access (128 Kbit/with, ADSL). From operating systems any more the first year basically Microsoft Windows XP use litsenzionnochistye variants OC.
As to computers with multinuclear (2 and more) processors while they do not occupy an essential share in sector of the desktop systems bought for usage in the state structures. But predictably, the situation will start to vary already by the end of 2007. However it does not concern the computers gained for house usage where two-nuclear processors of type of Intel of Pentium D and Core 2 Duo on a number of estimations already dominate. It is promoted by progress in other components.
The motherboards created on the basis of modern chipsets of the system logic (chip sets) first of all concern these components, supported by appropriate videoadapters and hard disks. From motherboards offered in the market in the lead positions occupy products of companies ASUSTeK, Gigabyte and MSI. In the end of 2006 and in the beginning of 2007 the majority of the sold computers released by domestic collectors, cards on the basis of chip sets of i945 sets and i915 incorporated. However further began type promptly popularity of a product with i965 set chips. Such solutions are taken up a position as the high-powered systems competing to more expensive variants i975. However already to the beginning of 2008 after a number of reduction of prices on chip sets and processors of solution with i965 are step-by-step superseded in sector of the cores and even initial solutions. Their present place is occupied step-by-step with chip sets of P35 sets and X38.
Step-by-step the share of computers gained in the large shops, capable to provide due grade of service increases. Quite often them are traditional supermarkets. The computers offered by the known foreign companies, occupying the upper lines of world ratings while the big popularity do not use (less than 10 %). It is linked first of all to their raised price, weak knowledge of potential users, tools lacks. The considerable share of such computers is gained by the large commercial companies for rise of level of the rating.
Sales volumes of notebooks continue to increase steadily. According to report data, increase of sales in comparison with 2006 has made 42 %, thus in the third quarter 2007 has been sold on 24 % of more notebooks, than for the similar period of last year.
The considerable share of notebooks carries known brands though are gathered at firms of continental China and Taiwan. According to some experts, the number of sold computers of this type already was made even to number of desktop systems. Popularity of notebooks is promoted by growth of functionality, their compactness and tendency to mobility.
By results of interrogation of the largest computer stores, among offered notebooks models Acer are in the lead. With small backlog products ASUSTeK follow. Further — Fujitsu Siemens, Dell, Samsung. Thus company Samsung puts considerable efforts all the same to enter into triple of leaders. Has increased the pressure and Toshiba.
That is surprising, among leaders there is no company HP though in the world market it saves many months superiority. Its share makes the second year the fifth part of all realised notebooks. So, for example, in the end of 2006 company HP became the leader of the market and its share has made 20,0 %, Dell — 15,0 %, Acer — 13,3 %, Toshiba — 9,8 %, Lenovo — 8,4 %, Fujitsu Siemens — 5,3 %, Sony — 5,0 %, ASUSTeK — 4,4 % etc . (A Fig. 1).
Fig. 1. Notebooks in the end of 2006
In 2007 the situation has varied a little. In the share third quarter were arranged as follows: HP — 21,4 %, Dell — 13,8 %, Acer — 12,8 % (Acer + Gateway + PackardBell — 16,2 %), Toshiba — 9,1 %, Lenovo — 8,9 %, Sony — 5,6 %, Fujitsu Siemens — 4,7 %, Apple — 4,6 %, ASUSTeK — 4,2 %, all the others — 14,9 %. A gain concerning the third quarter 2006 has made 42 %.
These are world market estimations. They, apparently, do not coincide with realities of the Petersburg market where places of manufacturers were arranged absolutely differently.
As to the models presented in the Petersburg market they have a number of features.
So, for example, an overwhelming part from them incorporate is liquid-crystalline panels of a form factor of 14 and 15 inches. But models, as with big, and smaller panels are, of course, presented.
In the beginning of 2007 platforms Sonoma and Napa dominated. Their basis are accordingly — the processor of Intel of Pentium M c kernel Dothan and chip set Mobile i915, the processor of Intel Core Duo c kernel Yonah and chip set Mobile i945.
However by the end of 2007 became much more the models created on platform Napa Refresh. Their basis are chip set Mobile i945 and the processor of Intel Core Duo c kernel Merom, providing support of 64-bit calculations.
Popularity of notebooks is promoted by implementation of possibility of wireless data transfer under standard IEEE802.11b/g – Wi-Fi. Transmission of electronic messages and access to the Internet are possible through points of wireless access under standard Wi-Fi – jotas-spots (Hot Spot) which number is great enough. The majority of them service users on a paid basis, however are present also jotas-spots with free access to the Internet (about two tens open jotas-spots of public access).
In spite of the fact that May, 2007 the transportable platform Santa Rosa which has incorporated all reachings of the previous developments was published, appropriate products in the Petersburg market for the present did not become dominating on the Petersburg market. Appropriate products are presented basically by high-powered models in a segment of high-powered arrangements of class DTR (Desktop replacement). The price of such models while remains still rather high. Nevertheless, already in first half of 2008 it is possible to expect appearance of models Santa Rosa Refresh with processors Penryn created on processing technique of 45 nanometers.
Considering advantages and problems of the market of notebooks, it is necessary to mark and transportable arrangements of compact form factors which concern UMPC and a handheld computer.
UMPC are, as a matter of fact, the reduced copies of notebooks which are characterised by small weight (500-900 ) and the small dimensions defined by a 7-inch form factor of a touch-sensitive display at a software compatibility with notebooks. Compatibility is provided with the architecture grounded on usage of economic models of processors of X86 architecture (Intel of Celeron/Pentium M ULV or VIA C3M) and OS of Microsoft Windows XP/Vista.
Offered in Petersburg market UMPC are presented in the main several models. Supplied touch 7 ”ZHK displays 800х480, these models are constructed on the basis of processors of Intel Celeron M ULV and chip sets i910GML and i915GMS, supplied HDD, standartymi by wire and wireless interfaces (Wi-Fi, Bluetooth).
Despite obvious advantages UMPC, their sale is not still mass. The reason is covered not only in novelty of these arrangements and weak awareness of potential buyers, but also with a price level, exceeding $1000. Nevertheless, the situation with UMPC can essentially vary already in the beginning of 2008 after appearance in the Petersburg market of the perspective inexpensive models planned to release by a number of the companies.
The specified problems do not concern the handheld computer market. These sverhompaktnye the arrangements released already long time, well-known also are popular. Leaders of this sector of the Petersburg market are the products presented by companies HP, Fujitsu Siemens, ASUSTeK. Their brands have already deserved confidence. However the list of manufacturers step-by-step extends for the score of less known manufacturers.
Variants of a handheld computer with the built in unit of satellite positioning on district – GPS use the greatest popularity. Besides, models are interesting to buyers with wireless interfaces: Wi-Fi provides possibilities of e-mail and the Internet by means of public and individual points of jotas-spots, and Bluetooth and IRDA – link with other arrangements, for example, with mobile phones.
One of features of the Petersburg market of a handheld computer is the abundance of the presented models which number is estimated by tens. Change of a lineup in the conditions of a hard competition is carried out rather fast. It is the already extremely difficult to find in sale of the arrangement with recently popular processors of Intel PXA255. They were substituted by models from Intel PXA27х.
Estimating a handheld computer, it is necessary to mark, that many companies mark stagnation of it, is obvious peregretogo Petersburg sector of the market, and some - even its abbreviation. As experts mark, pressure upon this sector is rendered by smart phones and kommunikatory which popularity continues the growth. A certain share of the market of a handheld computer further will occupy and UMPC.
In conclusion of the short analysis of the specified sectors of the Petersburg market it is necessary to mark, that it is formed in the conditions of remoteness of representations of the large foreign and domestic companies, and also rather a small amount of computer issuings. It negatively affects not only on retail, but also wholesales.