Moore's law
(Continuation)

The progressive essence of the law of Moore and its close connection with development of the semiconducting industry are marked by many experts, including those who directly influences development modern hardware and the software of computers. Key reports of heads of corporation of Intel testify to it, presented on IDF Spring 2002, and also statements of leading experts of the largest corporations, resulted in demonstration videoclips, for example.

Important that Moore's law instal reference points for development of all semiconducting industry. It became a rule for experts and the businessmen, allowing to predict potential possibilities future, yet not created products even in cases of absence of appropriate processing techniques.

Fig. 5. Growth of computational capability of processors

As is known, productivity and intellectual power of processors permanently grows. And, that is surprising, this growth submits Moore's to law. Quite often contrary to opinion of numerous critics.

Here pertinently to remind some facts. In 1989 clock rate of the processor then new and perspective architecture has reached 25 values MHz. At that time it was still i486. On reaching of value of 50 MHz it was required the whole three years. During present time the gain of 25 MHz can be carried out already all for one week. And in five years such gain becomes possible within only one day. Such is amazing power ekponentsialnogo the growth which is carried out for processors according to the law of Moore already three ten of years of prompt evolution of processors.

At the analysis of possibilities of current technologies even more often there is a question on periods of validity of the law of Moore. How long computer chips will evolve on an exponential low? Whether there is a limit to ambitions of the implementators increasing quantity of transistors in chips at constant reduction of the sizes of units according to constant development of processing techniques?

Really, in 80th years experts dreamt of processing technique 1 microns, and argued on periods of reaching and possibility of overcoming of this boundary. There were sceptics, whose arguments leant against fundamental laws of physics, for example, on increasing influence of quantum effects at reduction of the sizes of the units used in chips. But there were also optimists who believed that the newest processing techniques and architectures will allow them to solve all problems. Eventually the boundary in 1 micron has been successfully overcome, and in 90-s' years the boundary has been removed already to 0,1 microns (100 nanometers). And again there were many disputes, many objective difficulties, it is a lot of operation. As a result of intense activity of thousand experts the specified level any more is not an insuperable limit. Demonstrating by experts of corporation of Intel of the chips created, by the way, for the first time in branch testifies to it, on processing technique 0,09 microns (90 nanometers). And today speech already goes about barrier overcoming to 0,01 microns (10 nanometers).

Evolution of a procedure

As a result many experts even more often ask a question when because of reduction of the sizes of units all the same there will occur permanently removed limit? And when, at last, Moore's law will cease to operate?

Patrick Gelsinger supervising, by the way, in corporation of Intel of operation on perfection of processing techniques, in the report on IDF Spring 2002 has answered similar questions as follows. "Someone speaks 10 years, 15 years. I promise to you, that while I will not retire, at least, two and a half a decade, Moore's law will exist. The future never was for us such clear as it is now. We will move forwards together with Moore's linked to development of business and processing technique the law. And the end while out of sight".

In process of development of electronic and computer processing techniques productivity of processors permanently raised. On this path the set of objective obstacles was real, but they were step-by-step overcome by scientists and engineers at the expense of creation of new architectures and perfection of the newest processing techniques providing implementation of very difficult structures.

As an example it is possible to result development of processors of Pentium III and Pentium 4, 0,13 microns created on processing technique with usage of the inner patterns working on very high frequencies which value already rather makes for a long time some gigacycle. Especially it concerns processors of the bar of Pentiums 4 created on the basis of NetBurst architecture. It is Enough to recollect demonstrating of perspective models of this set of processors with clock rates of 3 GHz and even 4 GHz. Some subsystems of these processors function on the frequencies which values come nearer today to 10 GHz. But also these very high frequencies any more do not call enthusiastic trembling in the experts who have created teragertsovyj the transistor. Transistors of this type become a basis of new perspective, high-powered processors.

Fig. 6. The architecture traditional and teragertsovogo the transistor

Growth of operating frequencies, rise of productivity and problem of a heat release demand constant perfection konstruktiva tank (package). On change FC-PGA implementators of Intel have created BBUL (Bumpless Build-Up Layer). New konstruktiv allows to raise speed of operation of processors several times. Experts estimate this growth approximately in 5 times. In konstruktive BBUL the chip instead of was, how usually, on a tank surface, is shipped in tank. It has allowed to improve inductivity and size metrics, and as a whole it is essential to raise frequency, and, therefore, and productivity of processors.

Changes, as is known have concerned also power supplies mode. So, for example, transition from the "know-how" of processors 0,18 microns to 0,13 microns has demanded from manufacturers of motherboards to bring appropriate corrections in the architecture and design of motherboards. It is linked by that for processors of Pentium III and Pentium 4, 0,13 microns created on processing technique , the voltage regulators satisfying specifications VRM 8.5, carry out reduction a supply voltage of a kernel with growth of the computing load calling adequate growth of a current of consumption.

Besides, experts of Intel have made some fundamental reachings in the field of lithograph. It concerns programs EUVL — Extreme Ultraviolet Lithography. Production is planned on second half of decade. And, as Patrick Gelsinger has underlined, it is supposed to advance processing technique and further, even after the lapse of 2010.

However rise of operating frequencies and quantity of transistors of processor chips generates one more extremely important problem. It is linked to growth energopotreblenija, and, therefore, and teploobrazovanija, that complicates a problem of maintenance of an optimum behaviour of operation of high-powered processors.

Considering importance of a problem teploobrazovanija modern and future processors it is expedient to give Patrick Gelsingera's of word. Making comments on the specified problem in the report on IDF Spring 2002 it has told the following. "We foretell, that next 10 years first of all we will be limited by such parametre, as power (power). In 2010 we plan the processor with frequency of 30 GHz, with 10 billion transistors, the processing technique of 20 nanometers or is even less. All it will bring simply amazing high-speed performance. But it is necessary to recollect, that we very smoothly moved from 1 W to 10 W, then from 10 to 100 W. And we on path from 100 W to 1000 W. And for 1000 goes 10000. Exponential growth which perfectly well works both for and against consists In it.

Fig. 7. Energy density in processors of Intel of different generations

It is even more difficult, when such power is necessary on very small square when it is a question of power density. Drawing some analogies if in the late eighties it was simply hot plate in the middle of the future decade it is a nuclear reactor, in the end it already the rocket nozzle, and in the long term is the Sun surface. It is ridiculous, after all people will not carry a nozzle of a rocket or a nuclear reactor in the portable PCs. Therefore we pay the big attention to such important parametre of future and already modern transistors, as their power ".

Fig. 8. An estimation of density of energy in processors of Intel of different generations

As follows from the resulted examples, conquest of new boundaries of productivity demands considerable efforts. However there are no doubts, that all problems arising in engineering process of new products, will be successfully solved. For pledge prompt development of current technologies and the architecture of computer chips is. It allows to speak not only about observance of the law of Moore on immediate prospects, for example, for processors, but also about its extension: "Moore's Law is Expanding".

Formulated earlier as a prediction of regular doubling of transistors Moore's this law step-by-step extends and on other units of the difficult electronic circuits, which rates of complicating quite often do not concede to processor chips.

As a result there are absolutely new multifunctional arrangements which include not only transistors, but also and absolutely new structures which were unavailable until recently because of an insufficient level of development before used processing techniques.

As an example it is possible to result, for example, logical and optical chips, wireless communication units, chips operative and the nonvolatile memory of perspective processing techniques, various sensors and converters, and also included in structure of chips mechanical units and processing techniques. Further, probably, in this number biological and liquid structures will be added. In favour of it testify numerous, and recently and successful experiences on development of combined systems.

Thanks to the specified units and processing techniques scientists and engineers can essentially expand functionality of the future arrangements. In view of their perspectivity Intel corporation actively pays the big attention to development of appropriate directions.

Wireless processing techniques concern their number (wireless). Implementators of Intel name it "Radio Free Intel". The purpose of their operation are attempts to make radio so cheap and integrated, how much it in general is possible. Thus one of the key processing techniques providing reaching of this purpose, is MEMS (Micro-Electro Mechanical System). As a basis traditional silicon uses. Considering and banking its mechanical properties with possibilities of new processing technique of lithograph, it is possible to create a considerable quantity of very interesting multifunctional arrangements. New arrangements can combine in themselves as mechanical units, for example, electromotors, the relay and switches, and electronic units and the radio chains, allowing to create miniature radio transmitters and radio receivers. Processing technique MEMS allows to reduce essentially the size and cost of passives (the inductor, capacitors, etc.) Necessary radio in an electrical chain. It is necessary to mark, that already there are the ready developments made in the form of silicon chips, 10 GHz working on frequencies and above.

Other perspective direction is Sensor Network. Development of this direction allows to extend computers and their interconnection in space. After the automatic analysis of layout in space also automatically there is an optimum interconnection. Thus in attention the distance, energopotreblenie and other characteristics of operation is taken. The network itself adapts to possible change of parametres, dynamically reconfiguring itself entirely for very short time.

As one more direction of development of perspective products it is necessary to name Optical networks (Silicon Photonics). A basis of the given products are the optical systems consisting, as a rule, from lasers, optical systems, a photo of filters, fiber-optical lines and photodetectors. Multiplexing of the big number of accessories in one simple arrangement constructed on a small number of chips, becomes possible thanks to the modern silicon and other reachings used in Silicon Photonics.

Advantages of this method — simplicity of a construction, cheapness, and also, easy customisation, probably, even remote.

Development of the specified directions and sharing will allow to create in the near future already the products possessing unique properties. The purpose of the experts who are engaged in development of new processing techniques and products, — in a maximum measure to open their potential according to Moore's widely known law.