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Back in the future (on substances IDF)

Evgenie Rudometov
Victor Rudometov

In the end of February, 2002 in San Francisco has transited a traditional developer forum hardware and the software of computers and experts of electronics - IDF Spring 2002.

The main events of it, perhaps, the largest public event have been is short described in the previous article devoted to this forum. A principal value of such actions as IDF Spring 2002, consists in definition of perspective directions, and also the analysis of possibilities of existing and future processing techniques.

Presented on IDF the newest products and processing techniques have put in pawn a basis of many directions. They long time will make the big impact on development not only the branches of the industry linked to computers and electronics, but, considering value of modern information technologies, and on all economy of the majority of the countries of the world. Thus the important part of the accelerated implantation of the newest developments in a life and business is announcement and popularisation presented on IDF perspective reachings. Substantially it was carried out through reports of leading experts the branches presented, as a rule, by vice-presidents of corporation of Intel. Their bright performances were quite often perceived as original travel to the future, as has found the reflexion in mentioned article.

However the substance stored in the course of operation IDF it has appeared very much, and the subject of development of perspective processing techniques and the analysis of possibilities of the newest products is so interesting, that it wanted to return again mentally to the light, informational future described, for example, in performance of Patrick Gelsingera (Patrick Gelsinger, Vice President, Chief Technology Officer, Intel Corporation).

This performance accompanied by show of beautiful slides and effective demonstrating of perspective arrangements, it is possible to consider as the original guidebook to perspective processing techniques. Thus implementation of some of the described processing techniques will be carried out not in two-three years, and as Patrick Gelsinger has marked, within 10 years.

Key to the described future is Moore's well-known law. This law excites many years the public and does not allow to sleep easy to the legislators of the computer industry substantially defining its forward development.

More three tens years ago Gordon Moore (Gordon Moore, Chairman Emeritus of Intel Corporation) has predicted regular doubling of number of transistors in difficult electronic arrangements.

Now it is named Moore's as law (Moore's Law). However how there was an opening of the given law? The answer to this question was given by Gordon Moore in a videoclip shown during performance of Patrick Gelsingera.

It appears, all was very simple. The log on electronics has asked to predict Gordona Moore development of the semiconducting industry on the following of 10 years. It is necessary to mark, that at that time the chips accessible in the market, contained to 30 components on the chip. However in laboratory there was already 60-component experimental chip. Gordon Moore has fulfilled extrapolation for 10 years and has received the legitimacy formulated above predicting appearance of very difficult chips from several tens thousand of transistors. As it has appeared, the prediction of rate of complicating of the architecture of chips has appeared much more exact, than someone expected.

Further Moore's law has been modified: doubling of number of transistors in processors occurs each 1,5-2 years.

For good illustration of justice of this law the following data published on a site of Intel are.

 Processors  Year of release  Quantity of transistors
 Intel 4004  1971  2 250
 Intel 8008  1972  2 500
 Intel 8080  1974  5 000
 Intel 8086  1978  29 000
 Intel 286  1982  120 000
 Intel 386  1985  275 000
 Intel 486DX  1989  1 180 000
 Pentium Intel  1993  3 100 000
 Intel OF PENTIUM II  1997  7 500 000
 Intel OF PENTIUM III  1999  24 000 000
 Intel OF PENTIUM 4  2000  42 000 000

The progressive essence of the law of Moore and its close connection with development of the semiconducting industry are marked by many experts, including those who directly influences development modern hardware and the software of computers.

The photo of some are resulted more low.

When Gordon Moore has formulated for the first time the law of periodic complicating of chips, it was only the estimation received as a result of simple observation. Now it already became the law. This law instal reference points for development of all semiconducting industry. This law became a rule for experts and the businessmen, allowing to predict potential possibilities future, yet not created products.

It is interesting, that after microprocessor creation, Gordon Moore began to pay the big attention to implantation of this multifunctional arrangement during a daily life. Here is how it was described by Patrick Gelsinger.

Once, during walk, Gordon Moore began to reflect on usage of microprocessors in the house. Also has soon formulated 85 possible applications. It seemed, all possibilities are settled. But 5 years later he, again walking round the same house, has detected still approximately 30 places.

Since then about one and a half billion people use processing techniques which are a direct consequence of those observations. Thus the number of users permanently increases according to development of current technologies and release of products, complexity and which intellectual power permanently grows under Moore's law.

Here it is necessary to remind some facts. In 1989 clock rate of the processor of the new architecture has reached 25 values MHz. At that time it was still i486. On reaching of value of 50 MHz it was required the whole three years. During present time the gain of 25 MHz can be carried out already all for one week. And in five years such gain becomes possible within only one day. Such is amazing power ekponentsialnogo the growth which is carried out according to the law of Moore already three ten of years.

At the analysis of possibilities of current technologies there is a question on periods of validity of the law of Moore. How long computer chips will evolve on an exponential low? Whether there is a limit to ambitions of the implementators increasing quantity of transistors in chips at constant reduction of the sizes of units?

Really, in 80th years experts dreamt of processing technique 1 microns and argued on periods of reaching and possibility of overcoming of this boundary. In 90-s' boundary about 0,1 microns (100 nanometers) have been removed. Today speech already goes about barrier overcomings to 0,01 microns (10 nanometers). When as a result of reduction of the sizes of units there will occur permanently removed limit? And when, at last, Moore's law will cease to operate?

Patrick Gelsinger answers similar questions as follows: Someone speaks 10 years, 15 years. I promise to you, that while I will not retire, at least, 2,5 desjatilenija, Moore's law will exist. The future never was for us such clear as it is now. We will move forwards together with Moore's linked to development of business and processing technique the law. And the end while out of sight.

In process of development of electronic and computer processing techniques productivity of processors permanently raised. On this path there was a set of objective obstacles, but they were step-by-step overcome by scientists and engineers at the expense of creation of new architectures and perfection of the newest processing techniques.

As an example it is possible to result development of the processor of Pentium 4 created on processing technique of 0,13 microns with usage of inner patterns, working on frequencies in some gigacycle. It is enough to recollect demonstrating of processors with clock rates of 3 GHz and 4 GHz.

But also these very high frequencies any more do not call enthusiastic trembling in the experts who have created teragertsovyj the transistor...

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